Sitka, Alaska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

815
FXAK67 PAJK 070551 AAA
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Juneau AK
951 PM AKDT Fri Jun 6 2025

...New 06z Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
Key Points:
 - A short break from the rain continues Friday before the next
   front reaches the panhandle late tonight into Saturday.
 - A gale force low moves into western gulf early late Friday
   into Saturday.
 - Heaviest rain and highest QPF will be located near Yakutat
   Saturday evening into Sunday morning.

Details: A brief ridge will quickly be overcome by a low located
in the western gulf. This low will bring increased winds and times
heavy rain to the north gulf coast as a warm front reaches the
panhandle. The first to arrive will be increased winds with strong
gales of 35 to 35 kts with storm force gusts near Kayak Island
Saturday morning, see the Marine section for more information.
Winds over land areas were increased in this forecast to show an
increasing trend with the warm front. Winds north of Icy Strait
will begin to increase Saturday morning to 20 to 25 mph with gusts
of 30 to 40 mph. These winds will stay strong before beginning to
diminish late Saturday into Sunday morning.

For precipitation, EFI Tables still match with the northern coast
getting unseasonably wet with this weekend system, though any
precipitation impacts still remain light with no flooding
concerns. to accompany, a short period of increased integrated
vapor transport of 250 to 500 will be focused on the northern
gulf. This higher moisture will bring the heaviest precipitation
around the Yakutat area with total 24 hour QPF amounts around 1.5
to 2 inches. Heaviest rain rates will occur Saturday evening into
Sunday morning with 0.1 inches per hour near Yakutat and 70%
chance of > 0.1 inch per hour over Yakutat. The rest of the
panhandle will see lighter rain with 24 hour rain totals around
0.5 to 0.75 inches for the central panhandle and even less for the
south.

.LONG TERM...
Key messages:
 - A warm front brings more rain focused on the northern
   panhandle Saturday into Sunday.
 - Less active weather on the horizon to start the week as a
   broad surface ridge builds over the gulf.

Details: Rain and increased winds will continue into Sunday as the
low moves inland and weakens. This rain will be mainly over the
central and northern panhandle with 0.5 to 0.75 inches of rain
Sunday. Highest amounts will again be located near Yakutat due to
the low tracking ENE as it weakens.

After the weekend system leaves the area, broad ridging will build
over the gulf allowing for a chance of drier weather over the
panhandle with areas of light precipitation. Areas of dry air at 700
mb will help to keep any precipitation very light Tuesday to the end
of the week. Although, an upper level trough and embedded low will be
what helps to still bring some moisture to the northern panhandle.
As for temperatures, highs will be in the mid 50s with lows in the
mid 40s near normal. Upper 50s and low 60s may be possible, mostly
in the southern panhandle where more breaks in the clouds are
possible. Stay tuned for updates through the week.

&&

.AVIATION.../through 06z Saturday/
Prevailing VFR flight conditions across the panhandle this
evening with widespread CIGs AoA 4000ft and no visibility issues.

For the coastal and interior panhandle, flight conditions will
deteriorate by 12z along northern coastal TAF sites through
Saturday morning as a warm front extends into the panhandle
through 22z, followed by a reinforcing cold front through Saturday
evening. As these fronts push inland, anticipating widespread IFR
to MVFR conditions to develop by Saturday morning and persist
through the day, with CIGS AoB 4000ft and periods of IFR
visibilities possible within bouts of heavier precip. Winds should
increase through Saturday morning and into the afternoon across
the northern panhandle, with strongest sustained winds up to 20kts
and gusts up to 30kts, outside of Yakutat which will see brief
period of sustained winds up to 25kts and gusts up 35kts Saturday
afternoon.

Main aviation concern will be LLWS for northern Gulf coastal TAF
sites, primarily Yakutat, as front pushes inland with
southeasterly LLWS developing by 14z, increasing to near 50 to
60kts through 00z, gradually weakening moving into the end of the
TAF period. Elsewhere along the southern coast and interior,
expecting LLWS to be less severe, however, will still sustained
southeasterly winds around 25 to 35kts near 1500 to 2000ft as
fronts push inland.

For the southern interior panhandle, outside of a stray shower,
not anticipating too many aviation impacts with this system as
it`s generally confined to the northern panhandle with VFR flight
conditions prevailing through the period. Winds should remain
around 10kts or less through Saturday afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...

Outside Waters:
Winds strengthen through Friday night as a storm force low moves
into the Gulf, The front side of the low looks to bring gale
force winds to the coastal waters. The winds will start to pick up
late Friday night and last through Saturday. 25 to 35 kt winds
could linger into Sunday for the southern outer coast as the low
wraps up and moves northward. A brief period of storm force wind
gusts (50 kt to 55 kt) is expected on Saturday near Kayak Island
in the northern gulf as a barrier jet sets up.

Inner Channels:
A relative lull in the winds through Friday gives way on Saturday
as winds strengthen across the inner channels through the day.
The previously mentioned low looks to swing a pair of fronts
through the area that will increase wind speeds in the inner
channels to around 20 to 30 kts, with winds rapidly increasing
during the late morning through afternoon and evening hours on
Saturday. Lynn Canal will see brief gusts upwards of 40 to 45
kts.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Storm Warning for PKZ652.
     Gale Warning for PKZ651-664-671-672.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-022-053-641>644-661>663.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EAB
LONG TERM....EAB
AVIATION...NM
MARINE...GFS

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